Clear signs are emerging that the rugby dice appear to be falling in favour of adopting most of the Experimental Law Variations at the IRB Council’s meeting on the vexed issue in May.

It is my firm understanding that the five leading countries of the world – New Zealand, South Africa, France, Australia and England – are ready to vote for most of the proposals when the matter is discussed by the IRB Council.

The ELVs were trialled in this year's Tri-Nations tournament

As things stand, it is chiefly the Celtic countries, Ireland, Wales and Scotland that are standing out against making the proposals law. Of these, Wales are seen as crucial in possibly being drawn to the side of those in favour. If the Welsh succumb, then Ireland and Scotland will be lost, isolated and certain to be defeated on the issue.

Wales’s position is curious. With an international side keen on running rugby, they stand to gain more than most from the adoption of the ELVs. Yet national coach Warren Gatland admits he is against them and says he sees no real need for change in the game.

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